Nine months later, what do national Democrats think of Fitzgerald's chances?
It might be helpful to follow the money -- right out of the race and to other Democratic candidates with better chances of winning on Nov. 6.
The Roll Call newspaper on Monday reported that the DCCC had shifted to other races money it had planned to spend Oct. 23-29 on advertising in support of Fitzgerald. The newspaper said the Fitzgerald-Buchanan race was one that appeared to be a "steep climb" for Democrats.
The DCCC had already canceled planned ad buys for earlier in the campaign.
The bad news for Fitzgerald comes on the heels of a prominent political handicapper listing the race as "favored Republican," and a new independent poll that showed Fitzgerald trailing Buchanan by 17 percentage points.
Roll Call has rated the race as "likely Republican," and has written this about the race:
Allegations of ethical impropriety against Buchanan originally made this race look like it might be competitive, even though the district favors the incumbent. But those allegations didn’t really pan out, and now Buchanan looks in good shape to come back to Congress.
He came out a big winner in redistricting: He got to keep almost all of his current constituents in his newly numbered seat. And with no wave breaking for Democrats, he appears to have the resources and the campaign infrastructure to handily beat his opponent, former state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald (D).