Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Poll: Crist, Rubio tied in U.S. Senate race

Seven months ago, Gov. Charlie Crist seemed to be a "sure thing" and former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio a long shot, to win the Republican nomination for Florida's U.S. Senate seat.

Today, with seven more months in the primary campaign, they are tied.

The Associated Press reports:
Former Florida legislator Marco Rubio has closed the gap in the race for the state's Republican U.S. Senate nomination and is in a virtual dead heat with Gov. Charlie Crist, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Rubio, a lawyer who served as Speaker of the House, was once considered a long shot against Crist, who has widespread name recognition and a significant fundraising lead. But with Florida's primary seven months away, Rubio was favored by 47 percent compared with 44 percent who preferred Crist - statistically a tie in the Quinnipiac University poll that has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The random telephone survey, which included 673 GOP voters, was conducted Jan. 20-24.

"The horse race numbers are not a fluke," said Peter Brown, assistant polling director for Quinnipiac in Connecticut. "Rubio's grassroots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off."

The latest survey marks a stunning turnaround for the 38-year-old Rubio, a conservative who trailed Crist by 31 points in a Quinnipiac survey taken in June.

The same poll showed both Crist and Rubio with large polling leads over Democratic front-runner U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami.

Read the details of the poll here.

1 comment:

  1. The press release from the Quinnipiac University poll showing Crist as the leader was incorrect. (on purpose?)

    "If Crist were to file as an independent for the general election, he would get 32 percent of the vote, compared to Rubio's 30 percent and Meeks 24 percent."

    "In a three-way general election:

    Crist would get 30 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters;

    Rubio would receive 64 percent of GOP votes, 5 percent from Democrats and 29 percent of independents:

    Meek, a congressman from South Florida, would get 55 percent of Democratic votes, 15 percent of independents and no Republicans.""

    Add it up yourself, these percentile totals show Rubio with 98, Crist with 95 and Meek with 70 out of a possible 300% (the balance DK/NA)

    That equates to Rubio at 32.6%, Crist at 31.6% and Meek at 23.3% of the vote in a three-way race.

    You can see question 7 on the chart at Quinnipiacs site: