Romney's win bigger than McCain's in 2008

Mitt Romney won Tuesday's presidential primary not only because he received more votes than Newt Gingrich and the other Republican candidates, but also because he got more votes than in the 2008 primary when he finished second to John McCain.

That may be self-evident, but a closer look at the numbers may reveal more about the depth and breadth of Romney's victory and what it may mean in an increasingly likely general election showdown with President Barack Obama, when Florida again will be a battleground state.

Statewide, Romney on Tuesday received 774,989 votes -- not only 105,000 more than what he received in 2008, but also about 74,000 more than what McCain received in the 2008 Florida primary. That's made more impressive by the fact that almost 280,000 more ballots were cast in 2008 than on Tuesday.

(Similarly, Romney in Manatee County on Tuesday received 18,589 votes, about 3,400 more than in 2008; and about 2,400 more than what McCain received in his first-place finish.)

The race may have been  more competitive in 2008, when McCain finished with 36 percent statewide, compared to 31 percent for Romney, 14.7 percent for Rudy Giuliani and 13.5 percent of Mike Huckabee. On Tuesday, Gingrich finished a distant second, with about 32 percent, compared to Romney's 46 percent.

McCain all but clinched the nomination after his 2008 win in Florida, but he ended up losing Florida in the race against Obama.

Romney, too, may have wrapped up the nomination on Tuesday. And by the numbers, at least in Florida he may have emerged as a much stronger candidate.

To see Tuesday's statewide results, go here.

To see Tuesday's Manatee County results, go here.

To see the 2008 statewide results, go here.

To see the 2008 Manatee County results, go here.

Oh vey! Newt Gingrich kicks Mitt Romney right in the kishkes over kosher food veto

The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo reports:

The campaign of Newt Gingrich is robo-calling to bashing Mitt Romney for his veto of kosher nursing-home money in 2003.

This can only help Democrats, to the degree it's effective at all. No one's really sure how many Jewish voters there are, and it's a given that there are 1) few of them and 2) even fewer Republican Jews. And of those who will vote, it's a good bet to think this won't sway them too much.

Anyway, here's the alleged robo-call, according to the Huffington Post:**

As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill paying for kosher food for our seniors in nursing homes. Holocaust survivors, who for the first time, were forced to eat non-kosher, because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for our grandparents to eat kosher. Where is Mitt Romney's compassion for our seniors? Tuesday you can end Mitt Romney's hypocrisy on religious freedom, with a vote for Newt Gingrich. Paid for by Newt 2012.

Asked in Celebration today if he approved this, Gingrich wouldn't answer a reporter.

This was his last scheduled stop before awaiting returns in Orlando. He visited with a small crowd of residents on the manicured lawn outside the picture-perfect Heritage Hall. Ron Paul signs seemed to outnumber Gingrich signs, though a few were sporting Gingrich stickers.

He told one woman, "I need your help."

Spokesman RC Hammond told reporters that Gingrich intends to keep competing, across the board.

"The medias' picked front runner hasn't broken 50 percent yet," he said. "That leaves a lot of math out there for the conservative side of the party to pick up, which is how we'll stay competitive in the nomination. Which is why it will last late into the spring. because we will continue to bring in delegates, we will continue to bring in large amounts of support. As long as the tea party supporters keep coming our way, we're going to be able to do very well."

He also said of the campaign's FEC report -- says $5 million was raised from $250 contributors -- "We are a campaign of small donor donations," he said.

**incidentally, "kishkes" is yiddish and translates as guts.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

In Jacksonville, Romney stays on the attack vs. Gingrich

McClatchy Newspapers' William Douglas reports:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, kept up his aggressive rhetorical attack against former House Speaker Newt Gingrich Monday, the last full day of campaigning before Florida’s Republican presidential primary.

Speaking at a morning rally at a Jacksonville forklift supply company, Romney jumped straight into attacking Gingrich.

“Speaker Gingrich wasn’t very happy with the debates,” Romney said. “He said in the first debate he didn’t do well because the crowd was too quiet. He said he didn’t do well because the crowd was too loud.”

Romney continued: “I think the real reason he hasn’t done so well in connecting with the people of Florida is the people actually saw him in those debates, listened to his background and experience and they learned, for instance, that he was paid $1.6 million to be a lobbyist for Freddie Mac and they said ‘That’s not what we want in the White House.’”

Romney told the crowd that Gingrich received money from Freddie Mac at the time the housing foreclosure crisis was in full swing.

 “The idea that someone running for president at the time that was going on…that’s the real reason why Speaker Gingrich has had such a hard time,” Romney said. “If (people) want to see change Washington, you can’t just select the same people to take different chairs.”

Romney mocked a campaign promise Gingrich made on Florida’s Space Coast that, as president, he would return to manned space flight and establish a permanent U.S. colony on the moon.

“The idea of the moon as the 51^st state is not what would come to my mind as a campaign basis for here in Florida,” Romney said.

As Romney spoke, Rick Tyler, a former Gingrich aide and top adviser of the pro-Gingrich Super PAC Winning Our Future stood in the audience inside the massive garage where the event was held and listened. Tyler said he intended to bird-dog Romney’s campaign stops.

After the first event, Tyler told a scrum of reporters that Romney was “a liar.”

“He said Newt Gingrich resigned in disgrace (from Congress), there’s no evidence of it. Newt Gingrich resigned honorably,” Tyler said. “Romney has said Newt Gingrich was fined $300,000 - $100,000 ethics. That’s not true. (Conservative columnist) Byron York did a good piece the other day that explained the whole story. It’s a long story but I encourage people to look at the truth and not believe the lie.”

Tyler’s Winning Our Future bankrolled the 28-minute anti-Romney documentary “King of Bain” which media and non-partisan fact-checking groups along with some conservative organizations and Republicans say contained several inaccuracies and overstatements about Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital.

More polls show Romney leading in Florida

The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo reports:

 From InsiderAdvantage:

• Mitt Romney: 36 percent
• Newt Gingrich: 31 percent
• Rick Santorum: 12 percent
• Ron Paul: 12 percent
• Other: 9 percent

From Public Policy Polling:

• Mitt Romney 39 percent
• Newt Gingrich 32 percent
• Rick Santorum 14 percent
• Ron Paul 11 percent

Newt Gingrich (finally) to go on FL TV with ad.

McClatchy Newspapers reports:

Newt Gingrich is going up with his first ad in Florida, and it looks pretty simple. It's a just a clip from his South Carolina debate where he defended calling Barack Obama the"food stamp president." Rather than use music, the Gingrich ad crew just let the applause from the Republican crowd play. Here's the ad:

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has a new ad targeting Spanish-speaking voters.

He's running a new radio spot featuring Reps Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros Lehtinen. He's already advertising on Spanish-language TV, plans to give a Cuba-Latin American policy speech in Miami Wednesday and appear at the Hispanic Leadership Network on Friday.

The text:

CONGRESSMAN MARIO DIAZ-BALART: “I am Mario Diaz-Balart. Republicans should elect the best candidate to go up against President Obama, the candidate with the plan to get our economy going and create jobs. I am convinced that Mitt Romney is that candidate. That is why I am with Romney.”

CONGRESSWOMAN ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN: “I am Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Mitt Romney will fight against the despotic efforts of Castro and Chavez. He understands the urgency to stop them and increase our support for the valiant heroes who fight for democracy in Cuba. The policy of Obama has failed. We need the leadership and conviction of Romney to change course in our hemisphere. That is why I am with Romney.”

FORMER CONGRESSMAN LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART: “I am Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The presidential election this year will be decisive for the cause of liberty. We have an obligation to confront Barack Obama with the candidate who has the greatest opportunity to win. That is why I am with Romney.”

VOICEOVER: “Paid for by Romney for President, Incorporated.”

MITT ROMNEY: “I am Mitt Romney. I am running for President and I approve this message.”

Gingrich also has a Spanish-language ad, but he doesn't criticize Romney. Instead, he bashes President Barack Obama -- much like Romney had been doing all along before suddenly finding himself on the back foot and attacking Gingrich. Among the criticisms Gingrich's new ad levels on Obama: "We are still losing our homes," a key issue in Florida, one of the centers of the foreclosure crisis. "Let's not make the same mistake," the ad continues. "This Jan. 31, vote for Newt Gingrich, the only candidate with experience, leadership and an economic plan to recuperate our country that we so love."

3 weeks before Florida Republicans vote, Mitt Romney has big lead, according to poll

A new poll shows that "likely" voters in Florida are giving Mitt Romney a big lead three weeks before Sunshine State Republicans vote in their presidential primary.

But a majority think they might change their mind.

A Quinnipiac University poll found that 36 percent back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor; followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. 24 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 16 percent; U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, 10 percent; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 5 percent; and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

Fifty-four percent of the 560 likely primary voters surveyed said they might change their mind.

The poll was conducted Jan. 4-8, and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Read the press release, including more details about the poll results, below the fold.

Romney picks former state Rep. Mark Flanagan to run his campaign in Manatee

A day after Newt Gingrich named Bradenton City Council member Patrick Roff to chair his campaign in Manatee County, Mitt Romney announced Wednesday that former state Rep. Mark Flanagan of Bradenton would be heading his campaign here.

Flanagan, who was first elected in November 1994, served eight years in the Florida House.

Bradenton City Council member Patrick Roff leads Gingrich campaign in Manatee

Bradenton City Council member Patrick Roff has been named chairman of Newt Gingrich's campaign in Manatee County, according to The Buzz.

Gingrich's campaign made the announcement as part of the rollout of its organization in Florida in advance of the Jan. 31 presidential primary.

Gingrich's apparent chief rival for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney, unveiled his Florida organization earlier this year. One of his statewide co-chairs is former state Sen. Pat Neal, one of the largest real estate developers in Manatee.

Bradenton's Pat Neal co-chairs Romney's social-conservative advisers

Former state Sen. Pat Neal of Bradenton has been named a co-chair of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Social Conservatives Statewide Steering Committee.

The Miami Herald's Naked Politics blog has the release from the Romney campaign:

Mitt Romney’s Florida campaign today announced the names of the Social Conservatives Statewide Steering Committee. Each member has been an active voice in state politics and an advocate for conservative causes and issue campaigns. The Romney campaign will utilize this coalition to perform voter outreach and coalition building for Get Out the Vote efforts. 

“Mitt Romney is pro-life and is a true conservative on issues of family and faith,” said state co-chair Pat Neal, former state senator and former chair of the board of the Christian Coalition of Florida. “The members of this committee are tired of the liberal policies of the Obama Administration and are confident that Gov. Romney will stand up for the values that have made our country strong and will appoint judges that respect the Constitution and the rule of law.” 

“I am honored by the support of these important Florida leaders,” said Mitt Romney. “Like them, I believe that America is great because of the faith of our founders and the strength of our families, and we must do everything that we can to preserve both.”

Earlier in the campaign, Romney had named Neal one of the Florida co-chairs for his campaign.

A prominent real estate developer in Bradenton, Neal has contributed $7,500 to Romney's presidential campaign, according to Federal Elections Commission records; his wife Charlene has contributed an additional $2,500.

Romney holds on to fund-raising lead in Manatee-Sarasota

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has widened his fund-raising lead among donors in the Manatee-Sarasota area, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission.

In the third quarter of this year, which ended Sept. 30, supporters donated a total of $25,160 to Romney's campaign, bringing his haul from the area to $134,260.

Similarly, Romney holds a huge fund-raising lead statewide, collecting more than $2.46 million from Florida donors. The next largest haul was by Gov. Rick Perry, who has mined Florida for more than $737,000 in contributions.

President Barack Obama -- the man the Republican candidates are hoping to face in the November 2012 general election -- reported rasising $45,483 in Manatee-Sarasota during the third quarter, bringing his total to $111,691. Obama has raised a total of almost $2.1 million from Florida donors.

However, the biggest fund-raiser in Manatee-Sarasota during the third quarter was former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn., who raised $44,000, which his brought his total to $44,500.

Next was U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, who out-raised his fellow Texan, Perry, among Manatee-Sarasota donors.

Paul reported receiving $23,370 from donors in the area, bringing his total to $38,358. Perry, who entered the race in the middle of the quarter, reporting raising $20,960.

Herman Cain, the Atlanta businessman leading in many national polls, reporting raising $4,665 from Manatee-Sarasota donors during the third quarter, bring his total $8,655.

Bringing up the rear were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., who collected $375, bringing his total to $6,975; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, $4,250 ($4,250); Rep. Michelle Bachmann, $1,797 ($4,547); and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson $775 ($775).

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To view the reports, including the list of donors' names, go here, click on the map of Florida, click on a candidate's name on the left, and the scroll down to 342xx on the right pull-down menu.

Romney is leading in fund-raising in Manatee-Sarasota.

Mitt Romney leaves a fund-raiser at the Sarasota Yacht Club last month. (Bradenton Herald photo.)

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has raised almost as twice as much campaign cash in Manatee-Sarasota for his 2012 presidential campaign as has President Barack Obama, and almost two and a half times as much as his Republican rivals combined.

Romney's popularity in the region -- and his fund-raising prowess -- are revealed in reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission through June 30.

Romney has proven especially popular in the 342x Zip Code region, which covers Manatee-Sarasota, raising a total of $109,100. Only two Zip Code regions in South Florida and in the Jacksonville area have been more lucrative for Romney, according to the FEC.

In Florida, Romney has raised more than $1.49 million, more than any other candidate -- including Obama. (To see Romney's local donors, go here.)

The president has raised almost $1.15 million in Florida, including $66,208 from donors in Manatee-Sarasota. (To see Obama's local donors, go here.)

Other Republican candidates trail far behind in their fund-raising in Manatee-Sarasota. (To see their local donors, click on the links)

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has raised, $15,100; U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, $14,768; former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, $6,600; businessman Herman Cain, $4,000; U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann, $2,750; and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., $500. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has raised $2,100 in Florida but none in Manatee-Sarasota.

In all, presidential candidates have reported raising a total of $219,026 in the 342x Zip Code region.

Statewide, donors have contributed more than $3.25 million through June 30. Only donors in California, New York and Texas have proven more generous.

New poll shows Romney with large lead in Florida

Public Policy Polling has the story:

Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the Republican Presidential nomination in Florida, further cementing his front runner status in the wake of Mike Huckabee's exit from the race.

Romney is at 27% to 17% for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, 10% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Romney now has the outright lead in PPP's most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he's up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.

Beyond Romney's continued strength the big stories here are the rise of Michele Bachmann and the collapse of Newt Gingrich. Bachmann's 17% standing represents a 10 point gain from PPP's last Florida poll in late March, when she stood at only 7%. Her strength comes from leading the field with 'very conservative' voters at 21%, followed by Palin at 20%, and Romney at 18%.

Romney's Florida lead is built on a familiar formula. He's not winning with the far right voters who constitute a plurality of the Republican electorate, but he's at least staying competitive with them. Meanwhile he's dominating the field with moderates (a 36-15 lead over Palin) and with voters who identify themselves as just 'somewhat conservative' (a 32-15 advantage over Bachmann.)

Read the whole story here.

Romney in Sarasota on Thursday for fund-raiser

Mitt Romney, the front-runner for now in the race for the Republican presidential nomination next year, will be in Sarasota on Thursday for a fund-raising lunch.

The event is set for 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Sarasota Yacht Club, 1100 John Ringling Blvd., Sarasota.

Organizers of the event include honorary chair state Sen. Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton, and his wife Dee.

The "suggested donation" for the event is $250, and the maximum allowable contribution is $2,500.

R.S.V.P. to Meredith O'Rourke at  Meredithorourke@yahoo.com or (561) 818-6064.