Mack to walk in U.S. Senate primary

Via the Miami Herald:

The dominoes are falling.

U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner will likely leave the race and run for Allen West's soon-to-be-vacated Congressional seat, a source tells us. West's seat looks a lot like Hasner's old legislative Delray Beach-based district.

Hasner's move makes sense on more levels than that. Rep. Connie Mack, of Fort Myers, is cruising in the U.S. Senate race, leading in the polls and, soon, fundraising. Hasner could have handled that.

But Hasner's campaign was dealt a death blow, of sorts, bythe presidential campaign of Mitt Romney, who stumped in the final days across Florida with Mack. Mack picked up precious TV time and the aura of the favored.

Meanwhile, to avoid a bloody primary, leadership in the U.S. House asked Hasner to run for West's seat. But first, West had to announce he'd leave his seat and run for Tom Rooney's seat. And before that happened, Rooney had to announce he'd leave his district and run for a new district.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

Yahoo News!: Newt Gingrich goon squad assaults Ron Paul supporter

Via the Miami Herald:

Ron Paul's campaign is demanding an apology for what looks like an assault, according to a report filed by Yahoo! News concerning a physical attack on Ron Paul supporter Eddie Dillard in Windermere:

Dillard, a 29-year-old Ron Paul supporter from this suburb near Orlando, arrived to vote at his precinct at Winderemere Baptist Church early Tuesday morning. Pulling into the parking lot, Dillard noticed a man outside the polling place with a Gingrich sign. He decided to run home, slip into his "Ron Paul Rocks America" T-shirt, grab a "Ron Paul 2012" sign from his garage, and return to give his candidate some representation outside the precinct after he cast his vote....

One of Gingrich's security agents stepped in front of him. When Dillard didn't budge, the agent lifted his heeled shoe over Dillard's bare foot and dug the back of it into his skin, twisting it side-to-side like he was stomping out a cigarette. Shocked, Dillard kept his ground and took a picture of the agent with his phone, which was quickly knocked out of his hand. Dillard slipped off his flip-flop to pick up the phone with his foot, and a Gingrich supporter kicked the sandal away.

"Don't kick me!" Dillard said to the man who knocked away his sandal. More members of Gingrich's security retinue approached, shoving their shoulders and chests in front of him.

"Just block him!" a Gingrich campaign aide said. "Everyone step on his toes!"

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

Oh vey! Newt Gingrich kicks Mitt Romney right in the kishkes over kosher food veto

The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo reports:

The campaign of Newt Gingrich is robo-calling to bashing Mitt Romney for his veto of kosher nursing-home money in 2003.

This can only help Democrats, to the degree it's effective at all. No one's really sure how many Jewish voters there are, and it's a given that there are 1) few of them and 2) even fewer Republican Jews. And of those who will vote, it's a good bet to think this won't sway them too much.

Anyway, here's the alleged robo-call, according to the Huffington Post:**

As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill paying for kosher food for our seniors in nursing homes. Holocaust survivors, who for the first time, were forced to eat non-kosher, because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for our grandparents to eat kosher. Where is Mitt Romney's compassion for our seniors? Tuesday you can end Mitt Romney's hypocrisy on religious freedom, with a vote for Newt Gingrich. Paid for by Newt 2012.

Asked in Celebration today if he approved this, Gingrich wouldn't answer a reporter.

This was his last scheduled stop before awaiting returns in Orlando. He visited with a small crowd of residents on the manicured lawn outside the picture-perfect Heritage Hall. Ron Paul signs seemed to outnumber Gingrich signs, though a few were sporting Gingrich stickers.

He told one woman, "I need your help."

Spokesman RC Hammond told reporters that Gingrich intends to keep competing, across the board.

"The medias' picked front runner hasn't broken 50 percent yet," he said. "That leaves a lot of math out there for the conservative side of the party to pick up, which is how we'll stay competitive in the nomination. Which is why it will last late into the spring. because we will continue to bring in delegates, we will continue to bring in large amounts of support. As long as the tea party supporters keep coming our way, we're going to be able to do very well."

He also said of the campaign's FEC report -- says $5 million was raised from $250 contributors -- "We are a campaign of small donor donations," he said.

**incidentally, "kishkes" is yiddish and translates as guts.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

Newt Gingrich goes to Disney

McClatchy Newspapers' Lesley Clark reports:

Newt Gingrich's last scheduled stop before awaiting returns in Orlando was to a polling place in Disney's planned community of Celebration. He visited with a small crowd of residents on the manicured lawn outside the picture-perfect Heritage Hall. Ron Paul signs seemed to outnumber Gingrich signs, though a few were sporting Gingrich stickers. 

He told one woman, "I need your help." 

Spokesman RC Hammond told reporters that Gingrich intends to keep competing, across the board. 

"The media's picked front runner hasn't broken 50 percent yet," he said. "That leaves a lot of math out there for the conservative side of the party to pick up, which is how we'll stay competitive in the nomination. Which is why it will last late into the spring, because we will continue to bring in delegates, we will continue to bring in large amounts of support. As long as the tea party supporters keep coming our way, we're going to be able to do very well." 

He also said of the campaign's FEC report. which says $5 million was raised from $250 contributors: "We are a campaign of small donor donations," he said.

Voters have the final say in Florida Republican primary

The polls and the pundits can say whatever they want but in the end, the only thing that matters in an election is what the voters say.

Today in Manatee County and across the state, and after 10 days of a campaign that went into their homes via their televisions and their telephones, Republicans are having the final say in campaign for the Florida's 50 presidential nominating delegates.

This morning, and throughout the day, Bradenton Herald reporters have been talking with voters to see what they think.

Here is the story so far:

MANATEE -- Manatee County Republicans are headed to the polls today to cast their ballots in the GOP presidential primary. 

Dr. Jeffrey Thompson, a Bradenton dentist, voted at the Christ Episcopal Church precinct this morning. 

He voted for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. 

"I think we need a businessman," Thompson said. 

Top concerns for Thompson were education -- he is the father of four -- and healthcare, being a healthcare provider. 

Also voting at Christ Episcopal Church was Ron Koval, who declined to say who he voted for. 

"It's secret ballot," Koval said, but added that he voted for the candidate he thought would continue to the end of the election campaign and win the presidency. 

Voting was steady throughout the morning at the precinct, but there were no lines. 

Polls will be open until 7 p.m. at 117 polling places, according to Bob Sweat, Manatee’s supervisor of elections. 

Commissioner Robin DiSabatino, anticipating a long county commission workshop meeting this morning, said she took advantage of early voting last week. 

"It was a breeze," she said, adding, "My husband did it, too." 

Early voting ended Saturday. 

DiSabatino said she missed going to her regular voting place, Beautiful Savior Lutheran Church, 7461 Prospect Road. 

"I do like going to my precinct," she said. "I like to be involved." 

About 1,100 poll workers are on the job. 

Many Manatee County residents have already voted, either during early voting days that lasted through Jan. 28, or via absentee ballot. 

About 2,211 voted early, and a little over 10,000 voters as of Monday had made their choice with an absentee ballot, Sweat said. 

“We’re still getting those in, but right now, we have a little over 10,000,” he said late Monday.“We’ll get more mail this afternoon, and twice tomorrow,” he added.

Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2012/01/31/v-print/3832885/republican-presidential-primary.html#storylink=cpy

Crowd gathers for Newt Gingrich rally in Fort Myers

Richard Dymond reports from a Newt Gingrich rally in Fort Myers this afternoon:

Jim and Rosie Murphy, from Plano, Texas, arrived at 12:30 pm Monday to grab a front row seat for the Newt Gingrich rally in Fort Myers.

The Murphys are fervent Gingrich fans and were the first people to arrive today for the rally at a local airport.

"Newt is the only one who can get on stage and debate the president," Rosie Murphy said. "Barack Obama is a smart man, but Newt isn't afraid of anything."

Read about Gingrich's appearance at an earlier rally in Tampa, here.

Follow Richard Dymond's coverage of rally on Twitter @RichardDymond.

New poll shows Mitt Romney with 20-point lead

Here's the news release:

BOSTON – Republican hopeful Mitt Romney has opened up a 20-point lead in the final days leading up to the Republican primary in Florida, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) poll of likely Republican primary voters in Florida.

 

Romney led Newt Gingrich 47 percent to 27 percent, while Rick Santorum got 12 percent and Ron Paul finished fourth with 9 percent.  Five percent were undecided.

 

“It is almost certain that Mitt Romney will top his 39 percent showing in New Hampshire,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “This poll also tells us that Romney could reverse and exceed Newt Gingrich’s percentage and margin in South Carolina – and do it in Gingrich’s backyard.”

 

Romney led Gingrich 55 percent to 24 percent among those voters who indicated that they had already voted, and he led 56 percent to 23 percent among Hispanic voters.

 

"If Mitt Romney hits a historic benchmark in this election, he has Hispanic voters to thank,” said Paleologos.

 

Economy

 

Romney was seen as the candidate who can fix the economy by 50 percent of respondents, compared to 23 percent who expressed confidence that Gingrich could fulfill that role.

 

Negativity

 

Voters disagreed with Gingrich’s claim that Mitt Romney was carpet bombing him with negative TV ads; 37 percent of likely Republican voters said Gingrich ran the most negative campaign, while 31 percent said Romney.

 

November predictions

 

Most loyal Republican voters expressed some skepticism about a GOP win in November. Regardless of who they personally support in the primary, 45 percent said they believe Romney will be the next president, while 21 percent said President Barack Obama and 15 percent predicted a Gingrich win.

 

In a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) survey of general election voters fielded before Obama’s state of the union address, Romney led Obama in Florida by 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

 

A majority of likely Republican primary voters (55 percent) are satisfied with the field of candidates, while 39 percent were dissatisfied. Fifty-four percent don’t want another candidate to jump in at this point.

 

Bellwethers

 

Three separate Florida Republican presidential primary bellwether counties also indicate a Romney romp. In both Martin and Volusia counties, Romney topped Gingrich 52 percent to 24 percent, and in Sarasota County, Romney bested Gingrich 45 percent to 21 percent.

 

“When you see numbers like these, Romney is actually flirting with a fifty percent threshold, which would be devastating to his opponents given how difficult it is to get to that threshold in a multi-candidate field,” said Paleologos.

 

There are nine candidates listed on the Florida ballot.

 

In the 2008 Republican primary, Martin, Sarasota and Volusia counties reflected the state’s 1-2-3 order of finish and were within 4 points of the percentage of the vote taken by John McCain, Romney and Rudy Giuliani. The same held true for candidates Bob Dole, Steve Forbes and Patrick Buchanan in 1996, the last year that Florida Republicans cast a GOP presidential primary ballot with a Democratic president in office.

 

Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes – not margins. Over the past three election cycles, bellwethers have correctly predicted outcomes in more than 90 percent of trials. In the instances where three out of three bellwethers have agreed on the same candidate winning, bellwethers have been 100 percent accurate.

 

In January 2008 Suffolk University’s statewide poll forecast that John McCain would win Florida’s Republican presidential primary by 3 points; McCain won by 5 points. In addition, the 2008 bellwether of Florida’s Hillsborough County predicted a 7-point win for McCain.

 

Methodology

 

The statewide survey of 500 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted Jan. 28-29, 2012, using live telephone interviewers. The GOP survey of bellwethers Martin, Sarasota and Volusia counties (300 likely respondents each) was conducted Jan. 28-29 and carries a margin of error of +/-5.65 percent.  Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at noon on Monday, Jan. 30, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.

-----

Suffolk University, located in historic downtown Boston, with an international campus in Madrid, is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by the teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty.  Suffolk Universityoffers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 90 areas of study.  Its mission is to provide access to excellence in higher education to students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.